SIPRI Yearbook 2023: Global Security Assessment

Recently, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) unveiled its annual report, the SIPRI Yearbook 2023, which assesses the state of armaments, disarmament, and international security. This publication offers valuable insights into various aspects of global security, including military expenditure, arms production and trade, nuclear weapons, armed conflicts, and peace operations.

One significant finding from the SIPRI Yearbook 2023 is the surge in operational nuclear weapons due to countries’ ongoing force modernisation and expansion plans. Notably, China’s nuclear capabilities are on the rise, potentially reaching levels comparable to the USA or Russia by the end of the decade.

Key Points

Military Expenditure

Global military spending reached $1.98 trillion in 2022, marking a 2.6% increase in real terms from the previous year. This spending accounted for 2.4% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The top five spenders in 2022 were the USA, China, India, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, representing 62% of the total global military expenditure. The USA led the pack with $778 billion, followed by China with $252 billion and India with $72.9 billion.

Factors contributing to the rise in military expenditure include nuclear force modernisation, increased tensions among major powers, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on defence budgets, and involvement in armed conflicts and peace operations.

Arms Production and Trade

Sales of arms and military services by the world’s 25 largest arms-producing companies amounted to $361 billion in 2021, showing an 8.5% decline from the previous year, mainly due to reduced demand during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The top five arms-producing companies were all based in the USA, including Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Raytheon Technologies, Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics. Combined, they accounted for 40% of total arms sales among the top 25 companies. The highest-ranked non-US company was Airbus, based in several European countries, ranking sixth with $11.9 billion in arms sales.

International transfers of major arms increased by 12% during 2018-22 compared to 2013-17. The USA, Russia, France, Germany, and China were the top exporters, while Saudi Arabia, India, Egypt, Australia, and China were the leading importers.

Factors influencing international arms transfers included the demand for advanced weapons in conflict zones, supply-side strategies of major arms exporters, and the impact of economic factors and sanctions on arms procurement decisions.

Nuclear Weapons

As of the start of 2023, nine countries possessed approximately 13,080 nuclear weapons, with around 3,825 deployed with operational forces and about 2,000 maintained on high operational alert.

The number of operational nuclear weapons increased due to countries’ force modernisation and expansion plans. China notably expanded its nuclear arsenal from around 350 warheads at the beginning of 2022 to roughly 415 at the start of 2023. Additionally, China continued developing new nuclear delivery systems like multiple warhead-capable ICBMs, raising concerns about its potential parity with the USA or Russia in the future.

The prospects for nuclear arms control and disarmament remained grim due to challenges faced by existing treaties and stalled negotiations. While the New START treaty was extended by the USA and Russia for five years, progress on follow-on agreements or broader issues of strategic stability remained slow. The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, though in force since 2021, did not see any nuclear-armed states joining it.

Armed Conflicts and Conflict Management

In 2022, there were 56 active armed conflicts, an increase of four compared to the previous year. Intense conflicts with high fatalities occurred in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Syria, Yemen, and Nigeria. These conflicts were driven by factors such as political power struggles, territorial disputes, ethnic or religious tensions, and socio-economic grievances.

Armed conflicts continued to have severe impacts on civilians, with widespread violations of international humanitarian and human rights law, such as attacks on civilians, health facilities, schools, sexual violence, and forced displacement. The UN reported that over 235 million people needed humanitarian assistance and protection in 2022, a 40% increase from 2020.

While efforts to prevent, manage, or resolve armed conflicts faced challenges like lack of political will and trust among conflict parties, interference from external actors, fragmentation of armed groups, proliferation of weapons, and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, some positive developments included ceasefire agreements in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, peace talks in Afghanistan and Yemen, and democratic transitions in Sudan and Myanmar.

Way Forward

The SIPRI Yearbook 2023 serves as a reliable resource offering comprehensive information and analysis on global security, along with challenges and opportunities for peace and security. Addressing the root causes and consequences of insecurity requires collective and cooperative action among various stakeholders, including governments, international organisations, civil society groups, academia, and media, to foster a more peaceful and sustainable world.